Influencer marketing trend analyst shares 2024 beauty trend forecasts

As recently reported by market research firm Statista, in 2024, the cosmetics and beauty e-commerce industry in the United States is expected to generate roughly $88.5bn in sales and is forecast to reach over $94.5bn by 2026. Consumer engagement on social media platforms like TikTok and Instagram are significant drivers of this anticipated growth in sales, with influencers having a forceful impact on brand popularity and subsequent product sales.

For greater insight into beauty brands that are positioned for outstanding growth in 2024 based on their performance on social media, as well as what cosmetics and personal care product manufacturers can learn from closely following beauty brand social media trends, we interviewed Alexander Rawitz, Director of Content Marketing at CreatorIQ.

Rawitz presented his findings on these topics at Cosmetic Executive Women (CEW)’s recent State of the Beauty Industry digital event. He also offers extensive career experience analyzing beauty and fashion brand trends, having worked on the Market Research & Publications team at influencer marketing software company Tribe Dynamics, before being promoted to his current role at CreatorIQ in 2021 where he focuses on analyzing influencer marketing trend insights across multiple industries.

Key presentation takeaways

In his presentation, Rawitz explained that based on his analysis of “2023 data, we can expect beauty brands poised for big growth in 2024 to fit a particular profile,” he said. In identifying these profiles, the social media presence of these brands will reflect that their “Engagement (likes, comments, shares) [is] increasing at a more rapid rate than Impressions (total number of people viewing content),” he explained.

Regarding the social media platforms where these high-performing brands are excelling, “TikTok will continue to serve as a key growth accelerator for brands,” as “while Instagram continues to drive a majority of online buzz, TikTok’s YoY shares of engagement are increasing at a faster rate,” he shared.

For beauty brands interested in carving out a notable presence on social media, Rawitz provided additional insights. “As relates to standing out on social media,” he said, “brands should understand that organic enthusiasm is more crucial to success than ever.”

For example, he illustrated, “Top-performing posts by [estimated media value, or] EMV are typically unsponsored beauty routines or substantive, heartfelt shout-outs from official brand partners,” which means that based on his data analysis, sponsored content, or 'Spon Con,' no longer resonates with the consumer.

Manufacturers, suppliers, and beauty influencer trends

Manufacturers and suppliers to the cosmetics and personal care product industries can therefore gain useful insights into consumer demand for beauty product formulations and hero ingredients by following beauty brand social media trends and the influencers that impact their rise (and fall) in popularity.

First, said Rawitz, “make sure your product is ready for a big stage.” As detailed in CreatorIQ’s 2024 Influencer Marketing Trends Report, “the biggest factor for a creator wanting to work with a brand is genuine love of the product,” he explained, and “the percentage of creators who selected product quality as the most important factor is up this year (56%) compared to last year (43%).”

Second, he shared, is to “go big on color cosmetics,” as “bold looks that lend themselves well to short-form tutorial content are in right now” and currently extremely popular on social media. Although “viral gimmicks come and go,” he said, in the cosmetics space, Rawitz’s research has identified “this is a broader shift in the market that shows few signs of slowing down.”

Finally, he concluded, “the complementary relationship between skincare and cosmetics remains strong, with more brands mobilizing to cover both verticals.” Multifunctionality in the cosmetics and skin care have been a steadily growing trend in these spaces, and “whether it’s a cosmetics product that’s easy on the skin, or a skincare product that borrows from the world of cosmetics, crossover is all the rage,” Rawitz said.

For manufacturers and suppliers looking to apply these insights to their own ingredient R&D and product formulation processes, “I would encourage manufacturers to look at the brands mentioned in the presentation and analyze their top-performing products,” said Rawitz, which include K18, Natrium, Dr. Denis Gross, Mielle Organics, and Creed.

He further identified several “notable 2023 launches that drove online buzz for their respective brands,” such as Creed’s Aventus Collection, Summer Fridays’ Dream Lip Oil, REFY’s Red Collection, and RHODE Skin’s Peptide Lip Tint.

Areas of interest for manufacturers and suppliers in 2024 could therefore include lip products, complexion products, and any offerings that sit at the intersection of cosmetics and skin care, Rawitz advised.

Another area of potential interest for product development in 2024 that he found surprising, he added, is fragrance. “I was surprised (even if I probably shouldn’t have been) by the strength of the fragrance vertical," he said. “Creed is just one example,” he illustrated, “but we’ve also seen big surges from Dior Fragrance, Kayali, and others.”

What’s next: predictions for 2024

Moving forward into 2024, Rawitz summarized, “I expect color cosmetics, skincare-adjacent products, and fragrance to continue to proliferate,” based on the analysis of 2023 performance where “our top skincare brands and fragrance brands by Earned Media Value (EMV), CreatorIQ’s proprietary metric for measuring virality, saw across-the-board YoY improvements.”

This is notable, he clarified, because “that’s a rare thing, and doesn’t hold true across most of the verticals we analyze, so I think the momentum for these categories will continue.”

Additionally, Rawitz also forecasted that he “would expect and encourage more cross-brand collabs in 2024,” particularly considering that “some of the past year’s signature product launches stemmed from beauty and personal care brands reaching across the aisle to partners in other verticals—think RHODE Skin and Krispy Kreme, for one winning example.”